Final update on today’s races

And what they mean

Friends,

Here are the results for the races I previewed (and some others that caught my eye), and my takeaways:

Mississippi Governor: Republican incumbent Tate Reeves weathered his numerous scandals to win a second term, defeating Democrat Brandon Presley by around 5 points. Mississippi, the birthplace of the Dobbs case, is one of the rare states in which abortion rights are not perceived as a winning issue (Presley ran as an anti-abortion Democrat). Also of note are Mississippi’s draconian voter suppression laws, which undoubtedly had an impact on this race. 

Kentucky Governor: Democrat Andy Beshear defeated Republican Daniel Cameron in this Trump +25 state by an impressive 5-point margin (over 4 points larger than his 2019 win!). Of note in Beshear’s victory is that he ran proudly in support of abortion rights, against Republican attacks on transgender people, and against school vouchers (Beshear’s 2019 squeaker victory was powered by public school teachers). Beshear also boasted a solid first-term record, with competent management of the pandemic and regional flooding and presiding over record-low unemployment. Though Kentucky Republicans swept the attorney general and secretary of state races (and still have a ruthless veto-proof majority in the legislature), Beshear will have the power to issue meaningful executive orders (which he has previously used) to restore voting rights and expand access to medical marijuana. 

Virginia Legislature: Democrats had a great night, defending their state Senate majority and flipping the GOP-controlled state House of Delegates. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s dreams of a right-wing trifecta and presidential run are now dead in the water. Democrat Danica Roem, who made history in 2017 as the first transgender person elected to the state House, made history again tonight: She will be the first transgender person to serve in the state Senate. Youngkin gave Roem’s failed opponent $500,000 earlier this month despite the race’s being considered uncompetitive, likely purely because Roem is trans. 

VA School Boards: Dem-endorsed candidates in Fairfax County School Board races — the testing ground for “Moms For Liberty” right-wing school board candidates — appear to have won a clean sweep. In Albemarle County, Antonin Scalia’s daughter Meg Scalia Bryce lost her bid for school board. Scalia Bryce, whose children attend private school, ran a faux-moderate campaign in which she supported school vouchers, opposed supportive curriculum for LGBTQ+ students, and denied the existence of systemic racism. 

Ohio Issue 1: Ohioans overwhelmingly voted to pass Issue 1, enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution. This is yet another sign that the Dobbs backlash is real. This, after Leonard Leo’s dark-money operation spent a jaw-dropping $18 million to try to defeat the referendum. 

Ohio Issue 2: Ohioans went 2 for 2 on progressive wins and also voted to legalize recreational marijuana in the state. 

PA Supreme Court: Daniel McCaffery easily won the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race, increasing Democrats’ majority on the court to 5-2. This should hopefully protect Pennsylvanian voters from any voter suppression and election subversion schemes that Trump and the GOP attempt to carry out in 2024. 

Maine Referenda: Though Mainers voted down a proposal to establish public ownership of utilities, they passed a “right to repair” law for vehicles and voted to close a loophole allowing foreign spending on state and local ballot measures. 

NJ Legislature: Democrats rebounded after suffering surprise losses to the GOP two years ago, including then-state Senate President Steve Sweeney (who lost in an upset to political newcomer Ed Durr). Tonight, New Jersey Dems defended their majority in both chambers of the state legislature, flipping at least five GOP-held Assembly seats and Durr’s state Senate seat and retaining their trifecta through at least 2025. 

Overall Takeaway: Democratic/progressive policies are overwhelmingly popular. Dems did well in Kentucky, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Abortion rights continues to be a leading issue for Dems, even in red states.

(Thanks to Vishal Shankar.)