I'm a liberal who could help tilt the poll results more in that direction, by one whole person/vote. But I don't answer calls from unknown numbers. I know a lot of liberals who also don't answer calls from unknown numbers. I suspect there also are a lot of conservatives who ignore unknown calls, too. This is a huge problem for pollsters and for those who might rely on poll results. If it weren't for so many spam/scam/junk phone calls, more people would be willing to answer these unknown calls and poll questions, which might make the results a bit more reliable and helpful.
It's unfortunate, frustrating, sad and puzzling that Democrats and liberals always seem to have a lower voter turnout than Republicans and conservatives. Why don't Democrats and liberals turn out and vote their values as citizens most inclined to believe in democracy? It's crazy that they don't. It's not that difficult, especially considering absentee voting and voting by mail options that are available. And with Republicans working so hard to make it more difficult for some liberals to vote, it's all the more important for liberal voters to do their duty and exercise their privilege. I don't understand why this is an ongoing issue. I started voting 56 years ago and since then haven't missed a single opportunity to cast my ballot.
What is it that needs to happen to get liberals out to vote? Or to request and mail in their ballots?
On a similar note, I am fed up with polls addressing Biden's appoval numbers. The pollsters never point out that it is unprecedented to have a former potus tossing up so much negativity about the current potus, not to mention the election deniers that affect the approval numbers. And don't get me going on the negativity put out by Fox every damn day directed towards Biden.
Anyone else REALLLLLY concerned that we even have to worry about margins of error and polling trends at a time when one of the two major political parties has publicly declared a commitment to ignoring results they don't like, supporting cop-killing, treasonous mobs, hearing a Nazi's "side of the story" and using tax dollars for billionaire bailouts but not baby food?
This idea might rile up folks but in Australia people are required to vote and if they don’t they’re fined. If everyone voted in this country we would never have Donald Trump elected or anyone like that. Voting is not only a right but a duty.
"Roe, Roe, Roe to Vote!" I read that this was on a T-shirt. Cited by none other than Donna Brazille! But the article, "Will Abortion Be Enough To Save Democrats in November?," (Susan Glasser, in the New Yorker) also cites her as saying that unless people understand that Democracy itself is on the ballot they are unlikely to turn out in sufficient numbers. That is the real key. That Democracy itself is on this election ballot. -- And incidentally, curses on the Democratic party for supporting supposedly easier to beat radical right wingers. How many of them will now be elected? -- Anybody's guess.
Just hang on a minute, or, to put it Mr Reich's way: But wait.
Forgive me for being naive, isn't an election decided on who votes for whom? Not on who polls for whom? Who answers the phone 27 days out is irrelevant; it's who goes and votes on polling day that counts.
Or is this a Mohamed Ali boxing bout, where half the battle is the sharp one-liners exchanged at the weigh-in? To decide who wins, we vote, not poll. And if polling will affect how you vote, then you need to either not vote or be looking at the manifestoes in greater depth.
I was working as a market research interviewer and I only was assigned political jobs. I called NJ, NY, NH, VA, GA and MI. From my own personal experience, respondents readily admitted to being trumpers. I spoke to people who didn't complete high school to one who was a doctor. I was so dismayed at the strong support given to tRump and his chosen candidates. I would say on the average of 10 respondents, 8 were very strong tRump supporting R's. I wondered where all the Dems were. It kinda scared me.
I'd like to add when has the fear of losing our democracy ever showed up in a poll? The media has done a lackluster job iof exploring its significance. But I find the historical nature of this fear a harbinger of what will shape the midterms besides the relegation of women to second class status. Fury hath no rival like a woman scorned.
No matter what the polls say, I'm going to vote. In a country where even the Supreme Court can be bought, I believe that some polls can be. There are established polls that I trust, but Dr. Reich's three points are more reasons to be careful of the weight to give polls. I am hopefully optimistic, because it's hard to believe that the majority of voters will vote so against their best interests.
A comment on how twisted thinking can be. I recently had a Trump supporter tell me that the Democrats are doing everything possible to destroy this country. Yikes!
What the hey! I don't think Democrats ever get overconfident what with how much is at stake. I know I never have. I only pay attention to polls to get a general idea of how elections are going. I would hope all my fellow Democrats would do the same. I've always viewed every election as a critical point in American politics, but the two upcoming elections have a seriously special importance with what uncle trump (sic) has done to this country. Who could have ever thought the Repubs could have scraped the sewer any lower than Nixon, Reagan or W.? But damn if they didn't by a long shot! Technically, trump isn't on the 2022 ballot, but his stench is always there and will be until he's finally lowered in the grave or securely locked up in the penitentiary. I have planned on voting by absentee here in Georgia. They have been jerking me around about my getting info on when and how to get my ballot. As of now, I still don't have it. This is concerning me much more than the inaccuracy of the polls. I'm afraid that older folks here could get discouraged and not vote. Not everyone is as determined as I am. The Repubs' plan was to do exactly that, and it might be working. We can't afford to lose any votes. By god, I will cast my vote. I just hope every other Democrat will follow suite. Let's send our people to Washington D.C., and in my state, Atlanta, GA, as well!
There's a parallel with the UK. Brexit voters and Conservatives vopters were underestimated in the polls because people might not want to admit having un-PC opinions. A rough estimate might be that 10% of voters don't admit their preference, and most of them are right wing. Here's an example: suppose of 100 voters 52 actually vote right and 48 vote left. But 10 voters haven't declared their intentions, and of these 8 vote right and 2 left. Then the polls show 44 right to 48 left, i.e 48% right, 52% left. In the Brexit vote the Brexiters won by a mergin of 52% to 48% whereas the EU poll of polls had it the other way round. Go figure.
Rob's strong warning in the final para is therefore absolutely right. No complacency! Activists be out there! I remember being a telephone activist for Tony Blair's Labour party in 1997 on election night. He was careful to discourage complacency.
Dems at 65% on 538 in the Senate. 538 takes countless phenomena into consideration and is almost surely correcting for the things Reich is mentioning. Our chances in the House are at 29% by their model’s Deluxe calculation.
I’m sick of everyone talking about how the economy is bad because of the Democrats and Biden. Just because there is inflation does not mean it was caused by them. But on the 538 podcast, they take it as basically a given that gas prices (and not unemployment figures, at an all-time low) going down substantially is doom for Dems. I agree with that, but isn’t the media partly responsible for this, as well as the Dems themselves? It just seems like it’s impossibly hard to get through to people about what’s really going on, and what’s at stake here. ARGH
I get things in my inbox that request how I intend to vote and am suspicious that it could be MAGAts wanting to know where I stand. I don't participate. Unless it is a known entity, I delete it.
I'm a liberal who could help tilt the poll results more in that direction, by one whole person/vote. But I don't answer calls from unknown numbers. I know a lot of liberals who also don't answer calls from unknown numbers. I suspect there also are a lot of conservatives who ignore unknown calls, too. This is a huge problem for pollsters and for those who might rely on poll results. If it weren't for so many spam/scam/junk phone calls, more people would be willing to answer these unknown calls and poll questions, which might make the results a bit more reliable and helpful.
It's unfortunate, frustrating, sad and puzzling that Democrats and liberals always seem to have a lower voter turnout than Republicans and conservatives. Why don't Democrats and liberals turn out and vote their values as citizens most inclined to believe in democracy? It's crazy that they don't. It's not that difficult, especially considering absentee voting and voting by mail options that are available. And with Republicans working so hard to make it more difficult for some liberals to vote, it's all the more important for liberal voters to do their duty and exercise their privilege. I don't understand why this is an ongoing issue. I started voting 56 years ago and since then haven't missed a single opportunity to cast my ballot.
What is it that needs to happen to get liberals out to vote? Or to request and mail in their ballots?
On a similar note, I am fed up with polls addressing Biden's appoval numbers. The pollsters never point out that it is unprecedented to have a former potus tossing up so much negativity about the current potus, not to mention the election deniers that affect the approval numbers. And don't get me going on the negativity put out by Fox every damn day directed towards Biden.
Anyone else REALLLLLY concerned that we even have to worry about margins of error and polling trends at a time when one of the two major political parties has publicly declared a commitment to ignoring results they don't like, supporting cop-killing, treasonous mobs, hearing a Nazi's "side of the story" and using tax dollars for billionaire bailouts but not baby food?
This idea might rile up folks but in Australia people are required to vote and if they don’t they’re fined. If everyone voted in this country we would never have Donald Trump elected or anyone like that. Voting is not only a right but a duty.
Woman Unite and Rise Up
Vote Blue 22
Down Ballot
Check your registration and voting place.
Bring your family and friends.
Contact your circles of friends, energize and mobilize with love.
"Roe, Roe, Roe to Vote!" I read that this was on a T-shirt. Cited by none other than Donna Brazille! But the article, "Will Abortion Be Enough To Save Democrats in November?," (Susan Glasser, in the New Yorker) also cites her as saying that unless people understand that Democracy itself is on the ballot they are unlikely to turn out in sufficient numbers. That is the real key. That Democracy itself is on this election ballot. -- And incidentally, curses on the Democratic party for supporting supposedly easier to beat radical right wingers. How many of them will now be elected? -- Anybody's guess.
Just hang on a minute, or, to put it Mr Reich's way: But wait.
Forgive me for being naive, isn't an election decided on who votes for whom? Not on who polls for whom? Who answers the phone 27 days out is irrelevant; it's who goes and votes on polling day that counts.
Or is this a Mohamed Ali boxing bout, where half the battle is the sharp one-liners exchanged at the weigh-in? To decide who wins, we vote, not poll. And if polling will affect how you vote, then you need to either not vote or be looking at the manifestoes in greater depth.
If I were a Trumpster, I’d be ashamed to admit it too.
Pollster: Have you no sense of decency?
Trumpster: No. I don’t.
I was working as a market research interviewer and I only was assigned political jobs. I called NJ, NY, NH, VA, GA and MI. From my own personal experience, respondents readily admitted to being trumpers. I spoke to people who didn't complete high school to one who was a doctor. I was so dismayed at the strong support given to tRump and his chosen candidates. I would say on the average of 10 respondents, 8 were very strong tRump supporting R's. I wondered where all the Dems were. It kinda scared me.
I'd like to add when has the fear of losing our democracy ever showed up in a poll? The media has done a lackluster job iof exploring its significance. But I find the historical nature of this fear a harbinger of what will shape the midterms besides the relegation of women to second class status. Fury hath no rival like a woman scorned.
This poll was shown repeatedly on CNN.
No matter what the polls say, I'm going to vote. In a country where even the Supreme Court can be bought, I believe that some polls can be. There are established polls that I trust, but Dr. Reich's three points are more reasons to be careful of the weight to give polls. I am hopefully optimistic, because it's hard to believe that the majority of voters will vote so against their best interests.
A comment on how twisted thinking can be. I recently had a Trump supporter tell me that the Democrats are doing everything possible to destroy this country. Yikes!
What the hey! I don't think Democrats ever get overconfident what with how much is at stake. I know I never have. I only pay attention to polls to get a general idea of how elections are going. I would hope all my fellow Democrats would do the same. I've always viewed every election as a critical point in American politics, but the two upcoming elections have a seriously special importance with what uncle trump (sic) has done to this country. Who could have ever thought the Repubs could have scraped the sewer any lower than Nixon, Reagan or W.? But damn if they didn't by a long shot! Technically, trump isn't on the 2022 ballot, but his stench is always there and will be until he's finally lowered in the grave or securely locked up in the penitentiary. I have planned on voting by absentee here in Georgia. They have been jerking me around about my getting info on when and how to get my ballot. As of now, I still don't have it. This is concerning me much more than the inaccuracy of the polls. I'm afraid that older folks here could get discouraged and not vote. Not everyone is as determined as I am. The Repubs' plan was to do exactly that, and it might be working. We can't afford to lose any votes. By god, I will cast my vote. I just hope every other Democrat will follow suite. Let's send our people to Washington D.C., and in my state, Atlanta, GA, as well!
There's a parallel with the UK. Brexit voters and Conservatives vopters were underestimated in the polls because people might not want to admit having un-PC opinions. A rough estimate might be that 10% of voters don't admit their preference, and most of them are right wing. Here's an example: suppose of 100 voters 52 actually vote right and 48 vote left. But 10 voters haven't declared their intentions, and of these 8 vote right and 2 left. Then the polls show 44 right to 48 left, i.e 48% right, 52% left. In the Brexit vote the Brexiters won by a mergin of 52% to 48% whereas the EU poll of polls had it the other way round. Go figure.
Rob's strong warning in the final para is therefore absolutely right. No complacency! Activists be out there! I remember being a telephone activist for Tony Blair's Labour party in 1997 on election night. He was careful to discourage complacency.
Dems at 65% on 538 in the Senate. 538 takes countless phenomena into consideration and is almost surely correcting for the things Reich is mentioning. Our chances in the House are at 29% by their model’s Deluxe calculation.
I’m sick of everyone talking about how the economy is bad because of the Democrats and Biden. Just because there is inflation does not mean it was caused by them. But on the 538 podcast, they take it as basically a given that gas prices (and not unemployment figures, at an all-time low) going down substantially is doom for Dems. I agree with that, but isn’t the media partly responsible for this, as well as the Dems themselves? It just seems like it’s impossibly hard to get through to people about what’s really going on, and what’s at stake here. ARGH
I get things in my inbox that request how I intend to vote and am suspicious that it could be MAGAts wanting to know where I stand. I don't participate. Unless it is a known entity, I delete it.