What do Americans really know about Trump and Biden?

Why Biden’s good news isn’t getting through, and what Biden should do about it

Friends,

Not since Theodore Roosevelt ran against William Howard Taft in 1912 have voters been able to weigh the records of two men who have done the job of president.

The mystery is why Americans have more positive views of Donald J. Trump’s policies than they do of Joe Biden’s.

You and I both know that polls this far before an election are almost worthless. Even on the eve of an election, they’re mostly baloney. (Polling generated by HuffPost on Election Day 2016 concluded that Hillary Clinton had a 98 percent chance of beating Trump.)

Nonetheless, I confess that last week’s polls — The New York Times/Siena poll of seven swing states showing Joe Biden losing to Trump due to the economy, the FT/Michigan Ross survey finding voters trust Trump more on the economy than Biden (43 percent to 35 percent), Gallup’s showing that Americans’ confidence in Biden to do the right thing for the economy is among the lowest Gallup has measured for any president since 2001, and a Politico-Morning Consult poll finding Trump and Biden statistically tied on who did more to boost infrastructure — gave me pause.

When this many polls show the same thing, the thing they show deserves attention.

So let me attend to it.

First, I’ll give you the facts. Then I’ll try to explain why the facts aren’t getting through to voters. Finally, what I believe Biden and his allies must do.

1. The facts.

Under Trump the economy lost 2.9 million jobs. Under Biden, it has gained 15 million, so far.

Under Trump, the unemployment rate rose by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3 percent. Under Biden, unemployment has remained under 4 percent for the longest stretch in over 50 years. Working-age women are being employed at a record rate, and wages are rising for American workers.

In 2016, candidate Trump campaigned against the trade deficit with China. He called it “theft” and even used the term “rape” to describe it. In 2016, the U.S. goods trade deficit with the China was near $350 billion. In the first three years of the Trump administration (before COVID-19), it worsened, averaging almost $379 billion per year.

Under Biden, America’s trade deficit with China has improved dramatically — falling by $103 billion, or 27 percent, to $279 billion. It’s the lowest bilateral deficit in goods since 2010.

Under Biden, the stock market has soared. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time in history, exceeding the market’s annualized return under Trump.

Under Trump, the national debt rose from about $19.9 trillion to about $27.8 trillion, an increase of about 39 percent, and more than in any other four-year presidential term. It happened mainly because of Trump’s enormous tax cuts for wealthy Americans and big corporations.

The Trump and George W. Bush tax cuts have added $10 trillion to the debt since their enactment and are responsible for 57 percent of the increase in the debt ratio since 2001. They’re responsible for more than 90 percent of the increase in the debt ratio if the one-time costs of bills responding to COVID and the Great Recession are excluded.

Under Biden, the national debt has grown at a far slower pace.

Under Trump, the number of Americans lacking health insurance rose by 3 million. Under Biden, it’s been just the opposite. Enrollment in Obamacare has surged from 12 million in 2021 to 21.3 million today. To address consumer prices, the American Rescue Plan (ARP) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed by President Biden expanded and extended the refundable tax credits that help Americans purchase health insurance.

Meanwhile, the actual prices of goods and services is lower today than it was four years ago under Trump, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. That’s because incomes have grown faster than prices over that four-year period.

Biden’s investments in infrastructure, semiconductors, and green technologies are rebuilding the middle class. While Biden is making the biggest investment in infrastructure in 60 years, Trump talked about investing in infrastructure (his “infrastructure weeks” became a late-night TV joke), but he never did.

Spending on new factories has almost tripled over the past three years, as companies rush to locate in the U.S. market. Construction employment in April hit an all-time high of 8.2 million workers.

The CHIPs Act is creating large numbers of manufacturing jobs. It also activates the Davis Bacon Act, requiring that contractors and subcontractors pay the prevailing wage. It commits companies receiving grants to allow workers to unionize. It builds new plants in areas that have suffered job losses and decline. And it commits companies getting grants to include daycare facilities in their new plants.

Trump and other Republicans pretend to be on the side of average working Americans, while promising their big corporate backers even more tax cuts. Trump cut taxes on big corporations and the wealthy. He reduced the threshold salary for overtime pay.

By contrast, Biden has said he will not extend Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy and big corporations. Biden raised the threshold salary for overtime pay and made it easier to unionize. He was the first president in history to walk a picket line.

Trump’s record on antitrust enforcement was abysmal. By contrast, Biden has been the most activist trustbuster in a half-century.

In terms of the core goal of rebuilding the middle class, Biden’s administration has been the most successful of any administration over the past 40 years. Trump’s was the least successful.

Oh, and let’s not forget: Trump mounted an attempted coup against the United States government, seeking to overturn the results of the 2020 election and encouraging his followers to riot at the Capitol.

2. Why isn’t any of this getting through?

Partly because Americans suffer from a form of collective amnesia. There’s simply too much going on. We’re also very vulnerable to the power of suggestion — things we learn after the fact that become incorporated into our memory, fooling us into thinking they were real.

Our memories are also affected by our biases — experiences, beliefs, prior knowledge, and what our friends and associates believe. When we retrieve a memory, these biases influence what information we actually recall.

Anyone who watches a lot of Fox News or hears lots of right-wing radio is vulnerable to both suggestion and bias.

But there’s something else.

The media lives off conflict. And Trump is nothing but conflict. He bloviates, lies, exaggerates, takes credit, avoids blame, and belittles and excoriates opponents.

So he gets a lot of airtime.

Meanwhile, Biden does the hard work of getting stuff done. But editors and publishers don’t find this particularly exciting. Biden doesn’t lash out. He doesn’t ridicule his opponents or call them names. He doesn’t intentionally lie. He doesn’t exaggerate his successes or minimize challenges ahead.

So few people know what Biden is doing or has accomplished.

Look, I’ve had my disappointments with Biden. I wish he had confronted Netanyahu more forcefully and refused much earlier to supply American weapons to Netanyahu’s right-wing government. I wish he had headed off the bloodbath in Gaza. I wish he would continue to hold back armaments.

Biden did warn Netanyahu publicly, and early on, that an Israeli occupation of Gaza would be a “big mistake.” And while Republicans bellyached that Biden had no policy for the Middle East, he negotiated the beginnings of a Saudi-Israeli peace pact that would have made considerable concessions to Palestinians. It was the single best opportunity for a more ordinary life for Palestinians and Israelis since the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin and Anwar Sadat by Israelis and Arabs opposed to peace. Tragically, it may never happen now.

Anyone who thinks Trump would be better on Israel and Gaza is living on another planet.

Looking at the larger picture, Biden is an adult. He quietly and competently does the work of governing the nation. His Cabinet is talented and committed. His White House staff is one of the best I’ve seen.

Trump is a wildly narcissistic child.

When voters tell pollsters they think Trump is “stronger” than Biden on foreign policy or the economy, the “strength” they feel comes from the emotions Trump stirs up — rage, ferocity, vindictiveness, and anger. These emotions are connected to brute strength.

Biden projects strength the old-fashioned way — through mature and responsible leadership. But mature and responsible leadership doesn’t break through today’s media and reach today’s public nearly as well as brute strength.

3. So what’s the answer?

Not for Biden (or his Democratic allies and surrogates) to abandon facts, data, analysis, and reasoned argument.

Their best response is to draw the starkest possible contrast between Trump’s unhinged childishness and Biden’s competent adulthood. Rather than sell Biden’s policies, sell Biden’s character. Rather than dispute Trump’s arguments, condemn his temperament.

Point out the many ways Biden is sticking it to big corporations and Wall Street (through antitrust litigation, labor law, tax policy, noncompete agreements, and so on), in contrast with the tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks Trump gave big corporations and Wall Street — which is why corporate America and Wall Street are putting big money into Trump’s campaign.

And ask Americans the following question, repeatedly: Do they want a sociopathic infant at the helm again, or a sane grown-up?