What Blue States should do if Red States super-gerrymander

How to avoid a race to the bottom

Friends,

When Democrats gathered in Philadelphia eight years ago, Michelle Obama famously declared, “When they go low, we go high.”

But now that Texas’s Governor Greg Abbott — at the presumed direction of Trump, — has gone so low as to seek to super-gerrymander Texas’s congressional districts to come up with five additional Republican seats in order to maintain Republican control of Congress after the 2026 midterms, Democrats appear to be giving up the high road.

Good!

California’s Governor Gavin Newsom is threatening to redistrict California.

Some fear this tit-for-tat will turn into a race to the bottom that will further erode American democracy. With control of Congress hanging in the balance and the Supreme Court giving its blessing to partisan gerrymandering, they see California’s move as dangerous.

Wrong. California’s threat is actually a means of saving our democracy — a way to keep Republicans from sinking it. As long as Democrats threaten to do exactly what Republicans do — and no more — they could prevent Republicans from utterly destroying democracy.

Call it a mutually assured counter-balance (roughly analogous to the so-called “mutually assured destruction” that’s kept Russia and the United States from launching nuclear war on each other). Blue states must credibly threaten to counter-balance any new gerrymandering by red states — thereby eliminating any new red-state advantage.

To avoid turning this into a destructive race to the bottom, blue-state governors must make clear they’ll do this only if red states do in fact pull the trigger on super-gerrymandering and that blue states will do no more of it than necessary to counter-balance what red states do.

Newsom has been clear about this strategy. He said Monday that California Democrats are pursuing a plan that would be “triggered” by what happens in Texas. California is preparing for potential redistricting ahead of the midterms:

“In response to the existential realities that we’re now facing …. Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California. It’s cause and effect, triggered on the basis of what occurs or doesn’t occur in Texas.”

Importantly, Newsom’s plan would maintain the framework of California’s independent redistricting commission but allow for this mid-census redistricting to occur just for congressional maps in 2026, 2028, and 2030, before reverting to the existing system.

The language is important — “triggered” by Texas, seeking to “neuter” what Texas might do, before “reverting” back to the reformed system.

Other blue states need to follow California’s lead and also threaten to do what’s necessary to counter-balance whatever super-gerrymandering red-state governors have in mind.

Ohio is set to push forward with a plan to eliminate two House seats held by Democrats. Florida Republicans have also floated plans to redraw their district lines Which is why it’s important that — besides California — New York, Maryland, New Jersey, and Illinois also let it be known that they’re ready to redistrict to counter-balance any potential red-state gains through super-gerrymandering.

This isn’t a race to the bottom. It’s the opposite. It’s a means of avoiding the bottom.