More reasons for modest optimism

This week’s 10

Friends,

Your anxiety is entirely justified. We are going through one of the most stressful times in American history. It is a national emergency.

Yet the resistance to this foul regime continues to mount. Here’s this week’s report on 10 reasons for modest optimism, in rough order of importance.

1. The courts are stepping up their fight against the regime.

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s emergency request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid as part of his efforts to slash government spending. The vote was 5-4, with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Amy Coney Barrett joining the three liberal members to form a majority.

It’s the second 5-4 Supreme Court ruling against Trump since he returned to power, and it shows that an unlikely majority does exist to rein in Trump’s excesses.

This probably accounts for Trump’s decision to back off from issuing an executive order dismantling the Education Department. The Supreme Court would almost certainly have held that only Congress can shut down a department. (Shutting the Education Department has also been​ unpopular ​among Republican​ leaders​ in rural areas that heavily rely on federal funding.)

Meanwhile, lower federal courts are now considering over 80 separate lawsuits against the Trump regime. So far, the vast majority of lower-court rulings have been against Trump.

In an opinion handed down Thursday morning, Federal District Court Judge John J. McConnell Jr. extended an order barring Trump from withholding billions in congressionally approved funds to 22 states and the District of Columbia, including Federal Emergency Management funding. The judge said:

“Here, the executive put itself above Congress. It imposed a categorical mandate on the spending of congressionally appropriated and obligated funds without regard to Congress’s authority to control spending … In an evident and acute harm, with floods and fires wreaking havoc across the country, federal funding for emergency management and preparedness would be impacted.”

Also on Thursday, U.S. District Judge Beryl A. Howell ruled that Trump violated the National Labor Relations Act by firing National Labor Relations Board member Gwynne Wilcox, and that Wilcox remains in her position at the federal agency. Howell wrote: “The President’s interpretation of the scope of his constitutional power — or, more aptly, his aspiration — is flat wrong.”

On Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley extended a freeze on the Trump administration’s cuts to research funding through the National Institutes of Health.

Also on Wednesday, the Merit Systems Protection Board, which decides federal worker disputes, temporarily allowed thousands of Department of Agriculture employees swept up in Musk’s government-gutting effort to get back to work.

2. Musk and Trump Republicans are seen to be targeting Social Security.

Elon Musk calls Social Security “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.” That’s rich coming from the richest person in the world.

It’s also frightening coming from the person wielding a chainsaw to government programs — promising to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget, when Social Security is one of the largest of all government programs.

Acting Social Security Administration (SSA) Commissioner Leland Dudek told a group this week that Musk’s DOGE is essentially in charge of the SSA.

“Things are currently operating in a way I have never seen in government before,” Dudek said, referring to Musk’s cost-cutting team as “outsiders who are unfamiliar with nuances of SSA programs.” He continued: “I am receiving decisions that are made without my input. I have to effectuate those decisions.’”

The reason I include this as a reason for optimism is that Social Security is also the most popular of all government programs. By demeaning and threatening Social Security, Musk is touching the proverbial “third rail” of American politics.

Good. Let Trump and other Republicans try to wiggle out of this one.

3. DOGE’s credibility is shot.

Musk’s group claims to have saved taxpayers $65 billion so far. But DOGE has itemized only its cancellations of contracts and leases, totaling about $10 billion.

Not even these contract cancellations amount to much. The New York Times found many so-called “cancelled” contracts had actually ended under previous presidents.

By some estimates, DOGE has saved the government just $2 billion. That comes to 1/35 of 1 percent of the federal budget.

Repeated errors have raised questions about the quality and veracity of the information Musk’s DOGE is putting out. The mistakes also call into question the team members’ competence — whether they understand the government well enough to cut it while avoiding catastrophe.

This week, Musk again demanded every federal worker justify their employment, and once again, his hastily executed email has sowed confusion and resistance throughout the workforce, with many agency heads openly defying it.

Federal workers at NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) program didn’t know how to respond because HLS has contracted with Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin rocket company, the major competitor to Musk’s SpaceX, and HLS workers didn’t want to disclose to Musk what they were doing.

At the same time, the Commerce Department has adjusted a government program to make it easier for states and municipalities to use government subsidies to buy Musk’s Starlink internet service.

(Mark my words: When all this is put together, it will make Warren G. Harding’s Teapot Dome scandal look like a game of checkers.)

Meanwhile, Musk’s attack on the Veterans Administration is causing major headaches for Republican lawmakers, who are being deluged with complaints from veterans (see #5 below). The potential for 80,000 more firings at the roughly 480,000-person Department of Veterans Affairs is already jeopardizing safety at VA clinics and hospitals and the functioning of the VA’s crisis hotline for struggling veterans.

The consequences of Trump’s destruction of USAID continue to ricochet around the world. A senior official at USAID said Trump’s crushing the agency and withdrawing foreign aid would likely result in up to 18 million additional cases of malaria per year; 200,000 children a year becoming paralyzed with polio and hundreds of millions of infections; and more than 28,000 new cases of infectious diseases such as Ebola and Marburg every year.

4. Republicans lawmakers are forcing Trump to reduce Musk’s power.

On Tuesday, Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on CNN that Cabinet secretaries should retain the full power to hire and fire, echoing a message Trump has received from other Republican lawmakers and Cabinet secretaries.

On Thursday, Trump convened his Cabinet and told them they’re in charge of their departments, not Musk. Musk can only make recommendations to the departments but not issue unilateral decisions on staffing and policy.

Trump also said he wants to keep good people in government and not eject capable workers en masse. “As the Secretaries learn about, and understand, the people working for the various Departments, they can be very precise as to who will remain, and who will go,” he posted. “We say the ‘scalpel’ rather than the ‘hatchet.’”

Nice words, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The real significance of this is it shows Trump is feeling pressure to demonstrate he’s constraining Musk.

5. Republicans are hiding from their constituents.

Over the last two weeks, Republican lawmakers have faced scenes of frustration and outrage in theirs districts.

At a town hall in rural Kansas on Saturday, Republican Senator Roger Marshall shut down the event after participants shouted over each other to express concerns about veterans’ jobs being cut and ask whether Marshall believes Russia invaded Ukraine.

Attendees booed when Marshall abruptly ended the meeting. They shouted, “We’re going to vote you out” and “You’re not done!” according to a video clip from the meeting.

In Tennessee, voters gathered inside and outside an event held by Representative Diana Harshbarger, a Republican Freedom Caucus member, expressing anger over Trump and Musk’s actions and demanding that the Republican congresswoman stand up to them. According to footage of the event shared by local TV station WJHL, the crowd repeatedly interrupted the congresswoman, leading her to plea with them to stop.

California Republican Representative Jay Obernolte was confronted by voters who questioned the firing of Joshua Tree National Park employees by Musk and Trump, according to KVCR. Audience members shouted over Obernolte, who claimed that the park employees would be rehired but offered no further details.

As a result of these and many other angry confrontations, GOP leaders are now discouraging Republican lawmakers from holding in-person town halls. North Carolina Representative Richard Hudson, who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, is urging Republicans to hold “virtual” town halls instead.

6. The economy is taking a nosedive.

I’m including this among reasons to be optimistic because a growing number of Trump voters are suffering buyer’s remorse. They voted for him because they thought he’d fix the economy. Instead, the economy is taking a nosedive.

Because of Trump’s tariffs and his budget-busting tax cuts, consumer expectations about inflation are the highest they’ve been since 1995. Over 75 percent of the public believes that their incomes aren’t keeping up with inflation.

Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are higher than they’ve been since the 2008 financial crisis. Homebuilders are frozen, as well.

This week’s data on consumer confidence showed it down to a level last seen in 2021.

Data from the Commerce Department, out last Friday, showed consumer spending falling sharply in January, adding to angst about the economy’s prospects.

After new data came out this week on trade and consumer spending, the Atlanta Fed is projecting that the U.S. is shrinking at a rate of 1.5 percent in this quarter.

The political fallout is clear: Trump, came into office relatively popular. Now more Americans disapprove of him than approve, including nearly 60 percent of independents.

I’m also including this week’s plunge in the stock market on my causes for modest optimism because Trump and his wealthy campaign backers consider the stock market their measure of success or failure.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.8 percent on Thursday, taking the index’s slide for this week to 3.6 percent and putting it on course for its worst week since a banking crisis two years ago that felled some of the country’s small lenders. Have a look:

7. The stock market’s slide has forced Trump to back down on his tariffs.

The stock market’s negative reaction to Trump’s tariffs caused him to withdraw them.

On Thursday, Trump suspended new tariffs on most imports from Mexico and Canada until April 2. The exemptions, covering goods brought into the country under a trade pact Trump signed in his first term, came just two days after he incited a trade fight by imposing tariffs of 25 percent on two of the nation’s closest economic partners.

Bottom line: The stock market is stopping Trump from doing his worst.

8. Trump and Republicans are accepting a continuation of Biden’s spending levels.

The troubling economic headwinds are also pushing Trump Republicans to avoid a government shutdown, which would further worsen the economy.

With time running short to avoid a shutdown at the end of next week, Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson are urging Republicans to accept a stopgap bill that would keep federal dollars flowing at current levels through the end of the fiscal year on September 30.

This is a major surrender by Republicans because the stopgap funding bill would maintain spending at levels enacted under former President Joe Biden and would not include cuts being made by Musk’s DOGE.

9. Europe is coming together.

Trump has opened talks with Russia without directly involving Europe or Ukraine and seems intent on turning his back on America’s traditional allies.

The good news is that leaders of the European Union are joining together. On Thursday, the heads of state or government from the EU’s 27 member countries gathered in Brussels to discuss how to bolster both Europe’s own defenses and its support for Ukraine. “Europe faces a clear and present danger,” said Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU executive arm, as she walked into the gathering alongside Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, calling this a “watershed moment.”

“We are very grateful we are not alone,” said Zelensky.

Meanwhile, Europe is forging trade partnerships without the United States. As Trump puts up a higher fence around the American economy, other nations are lowering theirs — further isolating America.

The European Union has concluded a major agreement with four South American countries to create one of the world’s largest trade zones, linking markets with 850 million people, along with a new trade arrangement with Mexico.

10. Democrats are finally showing some spine.

My last item on this week’s list of reasons for modest optimism is that Democrats are finally showing a bit of backbone. During Trump’s interminable address to Congress on Tuesday night, many Democratic members raised signs. Some turned their backs on Trump. Others walked out of the speech.

After 77-year-old Texas Representative Al Green rose from his seat, shook his cane and yelled that Trump had “no mandate to cut Medicaid,” Republican Speaker Mike Johnson ordered Green ejected from the chamber. After the House voted to censure Green, he led a group of his colleagues in singing “We Shall Overcome,” forcing Johnson to call a recess.

On Thursday, Green gave an impassioned speech calling for “positive, righteous incivility” in the face of “ignoble incivility” from Trump. Green also noted that Trump faced no reprimand for calling Democratic members of Congress “lunatics” on Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee are asking the District of Columbia’s bar association to investigate Ed Martin, the interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, whom Trump has nominated to be permanent U.S. attorney — charging that Martin has “abused” prosecutorial power to threaten his political opponents.

Asking bar associations to investigate Trump nominees is a good means of circumventing Trump’s Republican lackeys in holding people responsible. (It worked with Rudy Giuliani.)

***

As before, my intention in giving you these reasons for modest optimism is not to minimize the emergency we’re in but to offer some cause for believing all is not lost.

Musk is proving to be a liability for Trump. It’s only a matter of time before Trump jettisons him.

Trump has put the economy in peril, which will cause widespread pain. Yet nothing galvanizes public outrage more than a poor economy.

Your continuing activism is also helping turn the tide against the Trump-Vance-Musk regime. Please keep it up.