The Quagmire of Trump’s Venezuela

Friends,

Apologies for another intrusion on your inbox today, but the story of what’s happening in Venezuela is unfolding quickly and big questions are mounting. The immediate danger in Venezuela (and potentially in Colombia and Cuba) is chaos.

Asked tonight who’s in charge of Venezuela, Trump answered: “We’re in charge.”

What the hell does this bluster really mean?

U.S. troops are not prepared to occupy Venezuela. Trying to do so would be a disaster.

Maduro’s system of oppression is still entrenched there. It includes the national guard, the army, the national police, the intelligence service, and the Colombian guerrilla group ELN. All remain intact.

Maduro’s top lieutenants also remain, including several who were involved in his alleged crimes. Not to mention his thugs and narco-traffickers who have been controlling Venezuela through violent repression and stolen elections.

Venezuela has roughly 28 million people. There’s no way to determine the emerging balance of power between pro- and anti-Maduro camps, but it’s a safe bet that any power void is likely to be filled with violence.

Today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of “coercing” the Venezuelan government to make policy changes over its oil reserves, rather than “running” the country: American forces will prevent oil tankers from entering and leaving Venezuela until the government opens up the state-controlled oil industry to foreign investment — presumably giving priority to American companies.

But since August, America has had an arsenal of warships, jet fighters, and some 15,000 troops on Venezuela’s doorstep, which hasn’t stopped oil shipments. How big must the arsenal be to do the job? How long will it remain there? At what cost? Will we bomb Russian or Chinese tankers coming into or out of Venezuela?

Rubio emphasized that “the national interest of the United States … is No. 1.” But what exactly is the “national interest” of the United States here? Big Oil? Chevron has been in Venezuela for years. Do we declare victory when Exxon-Mobil is there, too? Do we insist that Venezuela not charge America oil companies any extraction fees? How profitable must Big Oil’s extractions of oil from Venezuela become before Trump is satisfied?

Rubio says Trump hasn’t ruled out troops on the ground. But does anyone remember what happened in Iraq after the U.S. invasion there? Libya? Syria? Hello? How many failed states do we need to create before we understand their danger to the stability of an entire region of the globe?

Meanwhile, the Trump regime is fanning the flames of anti-Americanism, both in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America.

Asked tonight whether the United States would conduct an operation against Colombia, Trump said, “it sounds good to me.” He also suggested Mexico could be another target, saying the Mexican cartels are “very strong,” drugs are “pouring” through the country, and “we’re gonna have to do something.” As to Cuba, it “looks like it is ready to fall.”

He didn’t even stop with Latin America. Trump made clear he also wants to take control of Greenland. “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security and the European Union needs us to have it and they know that,” he told reporters on Air Force One.

This is nuts. Trump is already on his way to destroying the rule of law in America. Now he’s destroying the rules-based system of international law and diplomacy that the United States created in the wake of the horrors of World War II.

“America is respected again,” he gloated in his address to the nation on December 9. For Trump, “respect” means the power to bully, regardless of law. “Our nation is strong, and America is BACK.”

Wrong. What’s back is lawless gunboat diplomacy.