The Midterms in a Nutshell, as of June 13

What we must do over the next four and a half months

Friends,

A number of you have asked me for a simple overview of where things stand in the race to control Congress, so here’s some information you may find useful. It suggests where we need to focus our energies over the next four and a half months.

1. What’s needed for control of each chamber

• In the Senate now: 53 Republicans - 47 Democrats (or independents who caucus with Dems). Democrats need to gain a net 4 seats to take control of the Senate.

• In the House now: 219 Republicans (or independents who caucus with GOP) - 212 Democrats. There are four vacancies (one in a largely Republican district, three in largely Democratic districts). Assuming that none of the current vacancies flip party control in special elections before November, Democrats need to gain a net 3 seats to take control of the House.

2. Vulnerable incumbent Republicans

Senate Republicans in competitive reelection races who are considered vulnerable

• Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins is being challenged by Democratic oysterman Graham Platner.

• Ohio: Republican Senator Jon Husted is being challenged by former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.

• Alaska: Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is being challenged by former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola (and potentially another candidate named Dan Sullivan).

• Nebraska: Pete Ricketts is being challenged by independent populist Dan Osborn (who came close to defeating Nebraska’s other GOP senator in 2024).

  House Republicans in competitive reelection races who are considered vulnerable

• Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)

• Eli Crane (AZ-02)

• David Valadao (CA-22)

• Kevin Kiley (CA-06)

  (Kiley switched his party affiliation to “independent” after California’s Proposition 50 redrew him into a bluer district, but he still caucuses and votes with the GOP majority.)

• Jeff Hurd (CO-03)

• Jeff Crank (CO-05)

• Gabe Evans (CO-08)

• Marianette Miller-Meeks (IA-01)

• Zach Nunn (IA-03)

• Bill Huizenga (MI-04)

• Tom Barrett (MI-08)

• Brad Finstad (MN-01)

• Chuck Edwards (NC-11)

• Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07)

  (Kean has not been seen in public or voted in the House since March 2026 due to an unspecified medical issue.)

• Nick LaLota (NY-01)

• Mike Lawler (NY-17)

• Max Miller (OH-07)

• Rob Bresnahan (PA-08)

• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)

• Ryan Mackenzie (PA-07)

• Scott Perry (PA-10)

• Rob Wittman (VA-01)

• Jen Kiggans (VA-02)

• John McGuire (VA-05)

• Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

  PS: Republican incumbents who lost their primaries to Trump-backed candidates (and could turn on Trump)

  • Sen. John Cornyn (TX)

  • Sen. Bill Cassidy (LA)

  • Rep. Thomas Massie (KY-04)

3. Vulnerable incumbent Democrats

Senate Democrats in competitive reelection races who are considered vulnerable

• Georgia: Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff will face either Rep. Mike Collins or former football coach Derek Dooley after a June 16 GOP primary runoff.

  House Democrats in competitive reelection races who are considered vulnerable

• Derek Tran (CA-45)

• Kathy Castor (FL-14)

• Nellie Pou (NJ-09)

• Josh Riley (NY-19)

• Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)

4. Competitive open seats

• Competitive open seats for the Senate

  • Texas: Scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for Republican John Cornyn’s seat.

  • Michigan: Republican Mike Rogers will face a to-be-decided Democratic opponent for retiring Democrat Gary Peters’s seat.

    • The frontrunners for the August Democratic primary are Abdul El-Sayed, a Bernie Sanders-endorsed doctor who supports Medicare for All and getting Big Money out of politics, and Rep. Haley Stevens, a so-called “moderate” Democrat who is receiving major financial support from AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby.

  • North Carolina: Former RNC Chair Michael Whatley will face former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper for retiring Republican Thom Tillis’s seat.

  • Iowa: Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson will face Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek for retiring Republican Joni Ernst’s seat.
    

• Competitive open seats for the House

  • AZ-01 (currently GOP-held)

  • ME-02 (currently Dem-held)

  • MI-10 (currently GOP-held)

These are the down-ballot races I’m paying attention to, but let me know if I’ve missed any (and what key midterm races you’re focused on) in the comments below.