The End of Trump II, Part 1

Friends,

Today ends Part 1 of the second Trump regime.

First, Elon Musk has departed the Trump White House, not altogether happily.

He signed off via X after 128 wild days of mayhem and havoc, but the damage Musk did to our government and its capacities to serve the people will be felt for years — although many of his cuts were swiftly reversed by the courts. His slash-and-burn tactics, his raids on government (and personal) data, and his almost cruel delight in firing government employees and closing entire agencies leave a horrific legacy.

The irony is Musk came nowhere near his initial target of $2 trillion in savings. He kept moving the goal posts — from $2 trillion to $1 trillion, then to $150 billion. I doubt the final savings will be more than $20 billion, although we may never know because his method of accounting for and claiming the savings was opaque.

Musk’s havoc reveals the difference between budgetary effect (on which Musk had very little) and human effect (on which Musk’s treatment of the federal workers and of many Americans dependent on them caused extraordinary harm).

Musk did terrible damage to tens of thousands of civil servants, entire agencies such as USAID, and many government programs the public relies on, from FEMA to air traffic controllers to veterans benefits to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

A large portion of the American public came to despise him, and his own Tesla business tanked.

Good riddance.

Second, the court in charge of international trade has just struck down almost all of Trump’s tariffs.

The United States Constitution’s Article I (dealing with Congress), Section 8 (dealing with its specific duties and responsibilities), says, “The Congress shall have the power to … regulate Commerce with foreign nations.”

Seems pretty clear. But a law enacted by Congress in 1977 — the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — authorizes a president to impose tariffs, embargoes, and sanctions in response to national emergencies.

This is the thin reed on which Trump based his tariff rampage. He declared “national emergencies” because of fentanyl trafficking and the threat of persistent trade deficits. Trump also imposed retaliatory tariffs on countries that responded in kind.

But last night, three judges — appointed by Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, and Trump himself — unanimously agreed that Trump exceeded his authority by claiming America’s long-standing trade deficit was a “national emergency” and struck down the vast majority of Trump’s tariffs issued since January 20. They said cash must be repaid to those firms that have already paid.

The ruling, by the U.S. Court of International Trade, nullifies Trump’s executive orders imposing 25-percent duties on Canadian and Mexican products and a 20-percent tariff on Chinese products in response to a purported national emergency on drug trafficking.

It also strikes down a 10-percent tariff imposed on all U.S. trading partners to address trade deficits, as well as Trump’s paused “reciprocal” tariffs of between 20 and 50 percent on 60-odd trading partners, which are now scheduled to go into effect on July 9 if foreign governments can’t reach a deal with the White House before then.

The court did this in the middle of tense negotiations with the EU, China, and other key trading partners who had only been forced to the negotiating table by the tariff threat. These talks may not even continue.

Today, a second federal court ruled against Trump’s tariff authority. D.C. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras found, like the U.S. Court of International Trade, that Trump does not have the power he claims.

Trump retains the power to impose a 15-percent tariff on nations with which America has a significant trade deficit. And some of Trump’s tariffs — the 25-percent levies on metal and automobile imports — were issued under different legislation and will not be affected.

Obviously, the Trump regime will appeal. But chances for Trump to prevail on appeal appear dim.

Finally, Trump’s “big beautiful bill” — his effort to slash taxes, mostly on the wealthy — is stymied in the Senate.

Senate Republicans are deeply divided, setting up a battle in the upper chamber that’s likely to drag on well into July.

GOP senators are vowing to rewrite the bill, but they’re still weeks away from putting together a package that can muster the 51 votes it needs to pass.

The more senators change the legislation, the more difficult it will be to pass again through the House — where Republicans control a slim 220-212 majority. (Identical legislation must be approved by both chambers before it can go to Trump for his signature.)

The Medicaid cuts divide conservatives, with Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) warning they could be bad policy and politically suicidal. Maine’s Susan Collins is also concerned about them.

North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis warns that an abrupt termination of renewable energy incentives will hit domestic companies like a bomb blast. He’s keeping close track of the billions of dollars of low-carbon energy investments in North Carolina.

Collins and Tillis are top Democratic targets for 2026. If they’re defeated, Republicans might lose control of the Senate for years to come. With their reelections potentially riding on how the bill affects their constituents, Collins and Tillis are likely to drive a hard bargain, whether on Medicaid reforms or green energy incentives.

Treasury Department Secretary Scott Bessent has also warned Congress it will need to raise the debt ceiling in July if the government is to meet its fiduciary obligations.

What does all this mean?

That the first phase of Trump’s second term — the “flood-the-zone,” shock-and-awe blitzkrieg — is over. Without Musk, the power to unilaterally levy tariffs willy-nilly, or the momentum to enact his “big beautiful bill,” Trump is left only with his vindictive rage — and his money-making schemes to enrich himself and his family.

But Trump II Part 2 may not be easy for America. I expect Russell Vought to take over the reins at Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Vought, the author of Project 2025 and Trump’s budget director in both his first and second terms, is an inside player who — unlike Musk — knows how to get things done without causing widespread backlash. He’s likely to work quietly but effectively.

Meanwhile, Trump will continue to push American isolationism. I expect Stephen Miller’s vicious anti-immigrant policies to continue, even though the courts have slowed them down. The regime may now shift its focus to a more comprehensive dragnet targeting undocumented people inside the United States. And Trump’s belligerence toward America’s traditional neighbors and allies will continue.

Trump is not giving up on any of this. In fact, I expect that in Trump II Part 2, he’ll grandstand even more. He’ll rage against judges and take whatever he can to the Supreme Court. And his giant budget-busting tax cut will continue to be a focus of his demands on Congress.

But the frenzy of Part 1 is now over. There will still be bonkers executive orders and many headlines, and we must continue to resist however we can. But much of the damage so far has been contained.