Office hours: What if anything can be learned from yesterday's elections?
And should Democrats be worried about Biden's low approval ratings?
Friends,
Today, lots of news and views about yesterday’s election results. Most attention is on Virginia, where former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe attempted to return to his old office in a race against Glenn Youngkin, a wealthy Republican business executive. McAuliffe tried to tie Youngkin to the former guy. Youngkin centered his campaign on cultural issues such as how racial inequality is taught in schools.
Other notable elections include the governor’s race in New Jersey, mayoral selections in New York and Boston, and what voters in Minneapolis have decided to do (if anything) about their police department.
The tumult was also influenced by (and this morning you’ll note many references to) Biden’s sinking poll numbers. According to the most recent, only 42 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing. And seventy percent — including almost half of all Democrats — believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
I have some hunches about what’s going on, and what’s important and why — and will jump in at 10 am PT, 1 pm ET — but I’d like to hear from you. Please let me know: What do you believe can be learned from yesterday’s election results, and should Democrats be concerned about Biden’s sinking poll numbers?
Good morning, friends,
So, what should we make of what happened in yesterday’s elections? I want to offer three broad thoughts here.
1. First, the media is over-interpreting the results of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey as a “collapse of the Democratic coalition” (this morning’s Washington Post) and raising “fresh doubts about … Biden’s ability to push his domestic agenda across the finish line.”
P-l-e-a-s-e. These were races for governor, not for national office. And in both Virginia and New Jersey, the enthusiasm gap was huge -- affecting turnout. McAuliffe had already been governor. He’s a “centrist” who ran without a clear message. Youngkin was a fresh face, and Republicans turned out in droves. Particularly in Virginia, there’s almost always a backlash against the party in power. Fully 11 of the past 12 Virginia governors have come from the party opposite to that of the incumbent president. There’s only one time in the last 12 elections that the president’s party won a gubernatorial race in Virginia, and that was ... McAuliffe in 2013. Besides, Virginians want their governors to serve one term. No former governor has even been a major-party nominee since 1973.
Oh, and in New Jersey, no Democratic governor has won re-election since 1977.
2. Second, and notwithstanding this, it would be foolish for Democrats to deny that yesterday’s results signal possible trouble ahead – and to mend their ways.
Youngkin poured a huge amount of money into paid advertising and had the added benefit of Fox News and other right-wing outlets to amplify his dog-whistle message about “critical race theory” taught in public schools (even though no school in Virginia actually teaches it). He kept Trump at arm’s length but came off as a more likable version of Trump. That’s the formula to watch out for: Trump-lite, mixing racism and cultural rightwing tropes within a friendly demeanor.
3. The inability of Democrats in Washington to get Biden’s agenda done was another factor here and will be a huge one in the midterms if Biden and the Democrats have nothing to show for their first term. The Democratic coalition depends on highly motivated voters of color (who are watching what happens especially on voting rights and police reform); women (who are watching on paid family leave and childcare); and young people (who are watching on climate change).
And what about the white working class? Hard to tell much from Virginia but New Jersey may bode ill. New Jersey was one of the few places in the nation where the white working class was still reliably Democratic. It seems to have moved toward the Republican Party. Lesson here for Democrats: The only way to regain the loyalty of America’s white working class is through the economy – reversing 40 years of stagnant pay and declining job security.
Midterms are always bad for the party in power because expectations for major change are almost always dashed – resulting in widespread disappointment. I remember Clinton’s trouncing in 1994, when Democrats lost control of both the House and the Senate. Obama got similar treatment in 2010. In the upcoming midterms, Democrats have almost no margin for error: Losing just five House seats or one Senate seat means those chambers go Republican.
Bottom line: We must get Biden's agenda enacted, but go further -- making this economy work for all rather than a small group at the top. Democratic candidates would be wise to talk about "the people versus the privileged and powerful."
I'd like to add one more point -- this one about Biden's low approval rating. I'm not particularly surprised or concerned about it. In this era of harsh divisiveness, when it's hard to get anything done, presidential approvals will drop, But if Biden's his agenda is enacted, COVID cases and deaths continue to decline, and supply bottlenecks are overcome -- all big "ifs" -- Biden's ratings will bounce back.