Office Hours: What should be Biden’s central message in tomorrow’s State of the Union?

Friends,

In effect, the general election begins now — after Super Tuesday, with Nikki Haley out of the race, and tomorrow’s State of the Union address.

Joe Biden should win this election. He’s an incumbent president running for reelection with a reasonably healthy economy.

Yet Biden is not winning, at least not now. Polls show him trailing Trump in states worth well over 270 electoral votes.

Trump has effectively consolidated the Republican base, winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago. But Biden is winning 83 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago; 10 percent say they now back Trump.

Tomorrow’s State of the Union address may be Biden’s best and last opportunity to make his case to the American public about why he should be reelected.

What should be his major theme — his central message?

The economy? It’s far better than it was, yet polls show voter sentiment about the economy stubbornly low, and Biden isn’t even getting credit for what’s going well.

America back on track? In many ways it is, but only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction.

Biden’s accomplishments? He has a track record to be proud of, but more than twice as many voters believe Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. The share of voters who strongly disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than at any point in his presidency.

His handling of immigration? He’s been tougher on illegal immigration than his predecessors and has come up with a bipartisan Senate bill to better guard the border, but Trump Republicans won’t support it and most Americans believe Trump is better on the issue.

Foreign policy? He’s been firm on Ukraine and tough with Putin. But many Americans are troubled about Biden’s seeming complicity in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Hamas.

His loathsome opponent? Trump is a monster con artist, accused of multiple federal crimes, yet Biden’s support lags behind Trump’s in national surveys of registered voters.

But polls — especially polls this early before an election — are unreliable. There are still eight months to go before Election Day. Biden can still turn this around.

Hence, his central message tomorrow night is hugely important.

Today’s Office Hours question: What should that central message be?