America’s second civil war? It’s already begun
If Trump is elected, he’ll make it worse
Friends,
Despite the popularity of the recent movie “Civil War,” we’re not on the verge of a second one. But we are separating into so-called “red” and “blue.” And if Trump is reelected president, he’ll hasten the separation.
Since the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade left the issue of abortion to the states, one out of three women of childbearing age now lives in a state that makes it nearly impossible to get an abortion.
And while red states are making it harder than ever to get abortions, they’re making it easier than ever to buy guns.
Red states are also banning diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in education. Florida’s Board of Education recently prohibited public colleges from using state and federal funds for DEI. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed a law to require that all state-funded colleges and universities close their DEI offices.
Red states are suppressing votes. In Florida and Texas, teams of “election police” have been created to crack down on the rare crime of voter fraud, another fallout from Trump’s big lie.
They’re banning the teaching of America’s history of racism. They’re requiring transgender students to use bathrooms and join sports teams that reflect their sex at birth.
They’re making it harder to protest. More difficult to qualify for unemployment benefits and other forms of public assistance. Harder than ever to form labor unions.
They’re even passing “bounty” laws — enforced not by governments but by rewards to private citizens for filing lawsuits — on issues ranging from classroom speech to abortion to vaccination.
Blue states are moving in the opposite direction. Several, including Colorado and Vermont, are codifying a right to abortion. Some are helping cover abortion expenses for out-of-staters.
When Idaho proposed a ban on abortion that empowers relatives to sue anyone who helps terminate a pregnancy after six weeks, nearby Oregon approved $15 million to help cover the abortion expenses of patients from other states.
Maryland and Washington have expanded access and legal protections to out-of-state abortion patients. California has expanded access to abortion and protected abortion providers from out-of-state legal action.
After the governor of Texas ordered state agencies to investigate parents for child abuse if they provide certain medical treatments to their transgender children, California enacted a law making the state a refuge for transgender youths and their families.
Blue states are also coordinating more of their policies. During the pandemic, blue states joined together on policies that red states rejected — such as purchasing agreements for personal protective equipment, strategies for reopening businesses as Covid subsided, even on travel from other states with high levels of Covid.
But as blue and red states separate, what will happen to the poor in red states, disproportionately people of color?
“States’ rights” has always been a cover for racial discrimination and segregation. The poor — both white and people of color — are already especially burdened by anti-abortion legislation because they can’t afford travel to a blue state to get an abortion.
They’re also hurt by the failure of red states to expand Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act, by red state de facto segregation in public schools, and by red state measures to suppress votes.
One answer is for Democratic administrations and congresses in Washington to prioritize the needs of the red state poor and make extra efforts to protect the civil and political rights of people of color in red states. Yet the failure of the Senate to muster enough votes to pass the Freedom to Vote Act, let alone revive the Voting Rights Act, suggests how difficult this will be.
Blue states could spend additional resources on the needs of red state residents, such as Oregon is now doing for people from outside Oregon who seek abortions. And prohibit state funds from being spent in any state that bans abortions or discriminates on the basis of race, ethnicity, or gender.
California already bars anyone on a state payroll (including yours truly, who teaches at Berkeley) from getting reimbursed for travel to states that discriminate against LGBTQ+ people.
Where will all this end?
If Trump is elected this November, the separation will become even sharper. When he was president last time, Trump acted as if he was president only of the people who vote for him — overwhelmingly from red states — and not as the president of all of America.
Recall that during his presidency, he supported legislation that hurt voters in blue states — such as his tax law that stopped deductions of state and local taxes from federal income taxes.
More than 4 in 10 voters believe that a second civil war is likely within the next five years, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21-23.
Red zip codes are getting redder and blue zip codes, bluer. Of the nation’s total 3,143 counties, the number of super landslide counties — where a presidential candidate won at least 80 percent of the vote — jumped from 6 percent in 2004 to 22 percent in 2020.
Surveys show Americans find it increasingly important to live around people who share their political values. Animosity toward those in the opposing party is higher than at any time in living memory. Forty-two percent of registered voters believe Americans in the other party are “downright evil.”
Almost 40 percent would be upset at the prospect of their child marrying someone from the opposite party. Even before the 2020 election, when asked if violence would be justified if the other party won the election, 18.3 percent of Democrats and 13.8 percent of Republicans responded in the affirmative.
We are becoming two Americas — one largely urban, racially and ethnically diverse, and young. The other, largely rural or exurban, white and older.
But rather than civil war, I see a gradual, continuous separation — analogous to unhappily married people who don’t want to go through the trauma of a formal divorce.
America will still be America. But it is fast becoming two versions of America. The open question is the same as faced by couples who separate: Will the two remain civil toward each other?
Now that was pretty depressing. The best we can do is “remain civil” and not have an all out civil war? We need another Obama unifier - let’s hope he wasn’t the last (even if it takes a bit).
“More than 4 in 10 voters believe that a second civil war is likely within the next five years, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21-23.”
Thank you professor. I actually believe the Civil War never ended. We’ve been fighting the same battles since reconstruction, just in different formats: Jim Crow, civil rights, voting rights, control of the courts, etc…
That said, I believe the Confederate States of Dunces, I mean the Confederate States of America won the Civil war in 2000 (Bush v Gore), when conservatives solidified itself as a conservative court, and handed the election to Bush, based on the most corrupt and incomprehensible logic. Since then, they have been slowly eroding our rights, in favor of corporations (Citizens United), the rich, religious fanatics and gun owners. And they have been slowly eroding our separation of church and state; the foundation of our identity.
That said, when it comes to Rasmussen; they aren’t a scientific polling company. They ask questions in ways that get the desired outcome for conservatives, and their polling methods are extremely biased.
Not to mention, when it comes to voters, 4-10 voters may believe a second civil war is likely, but over 15% of American adults also believe in “Flat Earth Theory,” and 50% of Americans believe Trump isn’t a crook and the election was stolen; so there’s that.
So American’s opinions aren’t exactly a harbinger of things to come, and they are hardly ever right.
That said, are we really heading towards a civil war on the scale of 1860? Probably not, since our real war is about how “uncivil” our nation and attitudes about each other have become. Will there be violence ahead? Most likely, but not worse or on a scale, than the violence we’ve already experienced!in recent years.
And like it or not, we can’t just decouple from other states. Corporations, food supply, energy and Economics won’t allow it. It’s MAD; mutually assured destruction.
However, my real fear is the courts. Republicans have been slowly taking over the courts since the 1990’s, and they are winning. All of American will be subjugated to the White Nationalist Taliban agenda if Trump wins again, and the Federalist Society and Heritage Foundation fulfill their extreme measures and goals.
A Trump win, means the Federalist Society will own the courts, and the religious zealots will rule by judicial fiat; which means even if democrats retake the executive and legislative branches, republicans will tie up any major legislation for years to come; and then it’s game over.
A silent coup will have taken over this country without a single shot ever being fired. This alone should put the “fear of god” (no pun intended), in all of us.
Good times…:)